Some companies see opportunity in FWA and private wireless

By Jeff Kagan October 29, 2024

Collected at: https://www.rcrwireless.com/20241029/analyst-angle/kagan-some-companies-see-opportunity-in-fwa-and-private-wireless

Decades ago, wireless was a new treasure trove filled with small companies with big ideas and lots of growth opportunity. Today, after years of consolidation, growth and change, things are very different. After starting with lots of small companies, today we now have three major, public wireless networks, AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon, plus, lots of resellers. Same with network builders like Qualcomm, Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung, Huawei and others who have also grown over time. 

Let me share with you some of the new secrets the industry is exploring today, and what’s coming next. 

Today, we are starting the next wave of growth with new wireless technologies like private wireless, wireless broadband and likely much more going forward.

There are similarities and differences between now and the beginning of the wireless revolution. 

Wireless started out as an industry with lots of small competitors

It is important to understand both what is happening today and what is coming next.

When this whole revolution got started roughly 50 years ago, there were many smaller players in separate sectors and geographic regions. 

In fact, there were also different sectors like local, long distance, wireless, broadband, cable TV and more. And each sector had its own group of competitors. 

Wireless was just one sector. It has grown and changed over time from being installed in cars to mobile, from analog to digital, from 2G all the way to 5G and beyond and from a few hundred apps to millions, from flip phones to the Blackberry to the iPhone and Android. 

However, during the past decade wireless growth seems to have slowed. And that is the problem the industry faces today. 

Wireless growth has slowed during past decade starting new sectors

Wireless companies need to remain attractive to investors, workers and executives. That’s one reason it needs to continue to show growth. So, what’s next?

Back in the early days, nearly every wireless company was a smaller competitor. They had no brand-name recognition.

I remember this because many of them were clients of mine. I got to know the CEOs, their senior executives, their different growth strategies, their vision for the future, and more. 

They also looked to me for guidance on the direction of the industry to make sure they stayed on the growth wave. Otherwise, it would pass them by and leave them behind.

Trying to punch their way onto the radar of the wireless marketplace

These small companies competed with each other for the attention of customers, workers and investors. 

They all tried to be seen and heard. They were all trying to punch their way onto the radar. 

This was a difficult time for companies because they did not have a strong and well-known brand name. 

As time passed, consolidation played an ever-increasing role in the industry. Smaller companies merged and grew in size and scope into the giants they are today. 

Example, remember when the small baby bell SBC from San Antonio Texas acquired AT&T, BellSouth and Cingular which changed names to AT&T Mobility. Today, all these companies are under one roof and simply called AT&T.

Private wireless, FWA, DOCSIS, wireless broadband starting growth wave

Today, new technologies are entering the playing field. Today both private wireless and wireless broadband using FWA are moving toward M&A or partnerships and working together.

Most of these new ideas are started by smaller companies that no one knows yet. 

And that is the challenge. The same challenge faced by the original wireless industry full of small competitors years ago. 

New areas include FWA, DOCSIS, wireless broadband, private wireless

Today, there are multiple new technologies like wireless broadband using FWA or DOCSIS technology, and private wireless, private shared wireless networks and more.

The big challenge for these smaller companies with new tech is being discovered. 

Like early wireless where there were too many smaller wireless networks and none of them had the brand name strength they have today, the same thing is starting once again in these new sectors.

New areas of growth like private wireless and wireless broadband

Now, wireless seems to be moving into new areas like wireless broadband and private wireless seem to be growing. 

The many new competitors who are smaller, lesser-known companies. They have big ideas, but little cash, plus they are not well known in the marketplace.

As these new sectors grow, the next step will start to build. Smaller companies have breakthrough ideas. Larger companies have strong brand names and plenty of cash. 

Both sides want growth. This could mean the next wave of M&A is starting.

Juniper Network and HPE are merging which is good news for both

There are plenty of smaller companies like Juniper Networks who have big ideas, but struggle with cash. Larger companies like HPE can help them strengthen themselves. That’s why they have decided to merge.

I believe there will be many stand-alone companies and larger competitors like this, who will go through M&A as well. If not, at least partnerships to help them both.

Traditional wireless started decades ago with many, smaller players. Then over time they ultimately came together, and the industry looks much different today.

There will also be plenty of companies who can handle the challenge on their own. They will partner, not merge with others. 

What is happening with private wireless and wireless broadband

This is what I see happening today. Smaller companies with little name recognition need help in these early days. Help getting the word out. Being seen and heard in a noisy and chaotic industry.

Does this not sound like the wireless industry a few decades ago.

I have been hearing from several companies looking for ideas and even guidance.

Apparently, there are many smaller companies who all need help getting the word out and helping them punch their way onto the map. To be seen and heard. 

That is the key to success moving forward.

Ericsson, Boldyn, Nokia, Celona, Kyndryl, Airspan, Metaswitch, Kajeet

Small and large companies like Ericsson, Nokia, Qualcomm, Huawei, Boldyn Networks, Celona, HPE, Juniper Networks, Samsung, Kyndryl, NTT Group, Microsoft, Airspan, Cisco, Metaswitch, Federated Wireless, Kajeet, Cradlepoint and a growing number of new competitors of various sizes. Plus, many more.

Wireless, as an industry has been with us for roughly 50 years already. Since the 1970s. Growth has come in steps like 2G – 3G – 4G and 5G. It will continue this way moving forward. Growth then slowdown, then growth, then slowdown, over and over.

Something different is happening now. Over the past decade, growth in wireless has slowed. The move to 5G has not been as robust as other steps in the past.

Wireless needs to create the next, big growth wave for investors

The challenge is for wireless carriers and network builders to create the next, big growth wave like they did when the first iPhone and Android hit the marketplace almost 20 years ago. That created a long and profitable growth wave.

This is what investors are looking for. 

Today, new growth opportunities seem to be coming from smaller companies with executives who have big, bold and new ideas. 

So, let’s take a closer look at this segment to see what’s coming next.

The ongoing wireless growth cycle is repeating itself again

Over 35 years I have played in this sandbox, helping companies become successful and raise their profile in the wireless industry. 

The good news is in recent years I have also been hearing from a growing number of smaller competitors trying to get their messages out to the marketplace. Trying to raise their name recognition in the marketplace. 

What goes around, comes around. Different time, same challenge.

The challenge is the same. Companies that are unknown need to punch their way onto the radar of the marketplace. They need to reach customers, investors, executive’s and workers.

Most do not know how yet. They have not developed this skill set yet.

Expect these challenges to define the changing marketplace going forward. Today, these are smaller, lesser-known companies. Tomorrow, they want to be well known. They want to be on the radar of the marketplace. They want to become the AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, Qualcomm, Ericsson or Nokia of the marketplace.

They want to become important and recognizable brand-name leaders. Some will do just that. Others will continue to struggle. It all depends on the path forward they choose.