Private 5G and the state of ‘things’ – right where it should be

By James Blackman December 16, 2024

Collected at: https://www.rcrwireless.com/20241216/opinion/private-5g-2025

Note, this is a transcript, more or less, of the opening address at Industrial 5G Forum (still available on-demand) at the start of November; printed here for posterity, and to make up the numbers, but also because it works as an op/ed piece about the state of (the internet of high-powered 4G/5G-connected) things in Industry 4.0, as 2024 draws to a close and 2025 draws near. It is also used for the introduction of the Key Findings Report, which provides a blow-by-blow account of most of the sessions at Industrial 5G Forum.

I feel like I say this every time – in every article, in every report, at every event – but, who was the telecoms industry kidding? It was like 5G was meant to drive industrial revolution at the flick of a switch. Like it would be unilaterally released and deployed – in every enterprise venue in every sector. Just like that. Like it was supposed to be easy: a new market, a no-brainer, easy money – for everyone. That is the story the hype machine told. That is the story it always tells. And it never works that way.

On the one hand, 5G is not finished. It is a work in progress; and to some degree – maybe quite-niche – all the Release 18 and 19 stuff, about URLLC and TSN, and whatever else, will open new opportunities, and usher in 5G Advanced and 6G eventually. The point is 5G is a moving feast – it doesn’t start and stop, and the opportunity is never totally defined. So its importance for enterprises will mutate and develop. It doesn’t reach a point where it is done, and finished, and ready for review.

So all the forecasts about millions of venues and billions of revenues, are fun; but they’re more about the direction of travel, and less about the end-game, ultimately. More important than this is just the fact that the 5G ecosystem is engaging with a madly complex enterprise market.

So, you know, who said this was going to be easy? The latest GSA stats says the market is struggling to keep pace. Sales have slipped quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year from 21 percent and 45 percent at the start of 2022 and 2023, to four percent and 20 percent at the start of 2024 (see separate editorial report on private 5G from November). Which can be explained away. Because GSA counts enterprise references (by country), and not total networks. Which means existing deployments may well be going nuts – multiplying upwards and outwards. But new customers, new logos, are harder to find. Which means, probably, this market is getting into the real business of long-tail growth.

Which is right, and right where it should be. And no one is really questioning the value of the technology or the size of the opportunity. Dell’Oro says the market is “very large and mostly untapped”. SNS calls it “one of the few bright spots in a gloomy telco industry”. But it is going to take a while – and there are challenges to overcome. Which is what Industrial 5G Forum is all about – enterprises that are winning with 5G, and enterprises that are struggling with it, and all the clever companies with clever solutions to help. It is about the ecosystem dynamics in-play – about spectrum, technology, integration, security, scalability, skills.

And the whole of the 5G ecosystem is here, represented by leading enterprise buyers and technology providers. We have the big brains from the analyst community on hand. And we think we have put together an excellent programme – which we hope you enjoy, and take ideas away from.