By Jeff Kagan October 8, 2024
Collected at: https://www.rcrwireless.com/20241008/business/kagan-whats-next-as-wireless-and-communications-continue-to-evolve
Recently, I was asked to give a keynote address to kick off a corporate conference discussing our changing industry and preparing for what’s coming next. Let me say, that as a Telecom and Wireless Analyst, and columnist who has been following this industry for more than three decades, I have commented on wave-after-wave of transformation. However, what is happening today is quite different. It is beyond anything we have seen before. And we all need to both understand and act.
This time around, the changes will not only impact you, your company and the entire industry, but also every industry, around the world.
Let me share with you a few important points which we need to be aware of whether we are an investor, a customer, a worker, senior executive or CEO.
Today we are in middle of a massive, long-term, multi-decade shift
We need to understand what is happening today and prepare to stay on a winning track. It is important to know where we stood yesterday, where we are today and where we are heading tomorrow.
The majority of us are too busy focusing on the job at hand. However, to be a long-term winner, it is important to take stock of where we are and see the direction we are heading.
To develop a longer-term and deeper understanding of the world around us.
That’s why it is important to pull the camera back to gain a longer-term, historical perspective of the changing industry and in fact the world around us.
Pull camera back to gain longer-term perspective of changing industry
Today, our world looks very different from a few short decades ago. And, in fact today looks different from what tomorrow will be.
We are right in the middle of what I call the change-wave as it continues to reshape our world.
Today, we are in the middle of a massive, long-term, multi-decade shift as the industry, technology and competition changes and evolves all around us.
In fact, the communications industry impacts every other industry. How we communicate with workers, the marketplace, compete and so much more.
What I am saying is this is not just a massive change for wireless and telecom like in the past. Rather, this is a massive shift for every one of us in every business and every industry.
Things have already evolved from yesterday with telephone and cable TV, to today with internet, broadband, wireless streaming, AI, IoT, private wireless, broadband, FWA, DOCSIS and much more.
Interviewed many CEOs and they too struggle to understand the changes
Over the past several decades, I have gotten to know many CEOs and senior level executives who share their growth plans and strategies with me in order get on my radar.
They also look for my thoughts on them, their competitors, their performance and on the changing industry.
You see, every CEO needs to stay up to speed on the changing industry to guide their company down the right path. They need to fully understand the world around us and what is coming.
After all, no one wants to miss the next turn on the growth wave and get left behind like so many companies who failed to stay on the growth-track like Blackberry and Motorola.
Keynote address on change-wave in wireless and telecom industry
However, with new technology like Artificial Intelligence, even top CEOs at Microsoft and Google last year admitted they don’t fully understand how AI will transform our future.
And if they are confused, what about everyone else?
When speaking I always focus the audience on change. I try and help them better understand how the industry is shifting all around us.
How they need to pay attention to the shift and stay with the changing growth-wave or they risk being left behind.
Early adopters, fast-followers and everyone else
We always see a few companies as early adopters. They take the arrows and blaze new trails. They carve out the new path for growth for everyone else.
Early adopters are bold companies like AT&T and Google with Android who try new ways to do things.
Next, we see other companies being the fast followers. These are powerful companies like Verizon and Apple with iPhone. They don’t blaze new trails, but they fast-follow, and they too are successful competitors.
After these two groups, over time we ultimately see the rest of the marketplace jump in as well, one-by-one.
What will communications, news and pay TV industry look like tomorrow?
Over the past several decades I have learned that everything is always changing. So, in that kind of world, what will the industry look like tomorrow?
And how do companies prepare?
This is an ongoing process. It is important for everyone to know more. Every person and every company need to continue to ride the ever-changing growth-wave.
Everything we use for communications and entertainment has been changing over the years. Everything is in a constant state of flux. And it will remain that way.
Remember when the fax machines, pay telephones and phone books were all the rage? Where are they today?
Today, it’s all about wireless, streaming, broadband, wireless broadband, Internet, AI, FWA, IoT and so much more.
Change-wave impacts every competitor in every industry
The entire communications industry is going through a massive, long-term reinvention.
Incrementally. Wave after wave. And each company needs to ride the growth wave. If not, it will move ahead without them and leave them behind in the dust.
That has already happened to too many other strong companies in recent decades like Motorola, Blackberry, Palm and others.
Transformation both creates new growth opportunities, but also creates new challenges and risks.
Today companies face new growth challenges, risks and opportunities
Think about how these industries have changed over the past several decades. Think about decades ago with local phone service offered by seven Baby Bells and three major long-distance giants named AT&T, MCI and Sprint.
Until then there were little or no wireless, Internet or streaming services. Back then was a world full of many, smaller cable TV and telephone companies.
Fast-forward to today and the basic industries we all used to know have changed. Today, there are a few, giant leaders include AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, Xfinity, Spectrum, Altice, Cox and others all sell services from different sectors.
In fact, some sectors and services have disappeared or are in the process of fading away like telephone and cable TV. They are being replaced by new technology like wireless, streaming, wireless broadband, AI, IoT and more.
What about tomorrow? Will leaders be the same from yesterday with a refreshed set of offerings? Or will it be new competitors altogether?
Wireless broadband being introduced with FWA and DOCSIS
Consider how quickly things are changing today like cable TV and wireless.
Cable TV growth has slowed. In fact, cable TV carriers main service used to be cable TV. Not any longer. Today, it is high-speed, wireline broadband.
Next, it will be wireless broadband. FWA is a new technology which creates wireless broadband and lets wireless carriers start to compete with wire line broadband service.
This is a brand-new service that can be offered by wireless carriers like AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon, plus many smaller companies.
FWA wireless broadband is a new, competitive threat to the cable TV wire line broadband sector.
That means cable TV needs to find a competitive answer, and now.
Will DOCSIS be cable TV answer to wireless broadband threat?
A new, potential solution is now being introduced. It is called DOCSIS wireless broadband.
So, could this DOCSIS wireless broadband give cable TV access to a new competitive answer to the FWA wireless broadband threat? Perhaps.
I have recently spoken with leaders from some new providers in this young space. They have a compelling new service for the cable TV and broadband providers.
All these industries continue to move forward and transform. What we used to use yesterday is no longer hot today. New technology continues to transform our world. And new tech will continue to be introduced moving forward.
What will tomorrow look like? I expect a world with no traditional cable TV or regular telephone. Tomorrow, I expect new technology like wireless and streaming to win market share, plus whatever is coming next threatening exiting leadership with new technology solutions.
Change-wave will continue to transform technology and competition
Expect the technology change-wave to continue to reinvent the services we all use on a daily basis. New services will continue to be launched changing the industry further and faster.
What I am saying is simple. Just like the products and services we use today are changing, expect that change-wave to continue. It will continue to transform the products and services we use moving forward for decades to come.
Remember, the iPhone and Android smartphone revolution started less than 20 years ago. Before that the leaders were companies like Blackberry. Before that leaders were Motorola, Nokia and others.
It is amazing how quickly things can and do change.
Tomorrow is full of change and new growth opportunities in wireless and telecom
Tomorrow is full of new growth opportunities. It all depends on the growth-wave and where you sit on it.
So, on the growth wave, you are either on the growing side, or the falling side.
Think about your company and the products and services you bring to market. Is your company and are your items on the growing side of the growth wave? Or have they already crested and are now on the falling side of that growth wave?
Once your growth wave crests and drops down the other side, you must have already started your next growth wave.
If not, you may end up like a long list of companies, who were once industry leaders, but who today struggle in comparison. Companies who once led, now struggle for that same level of growth.
Growth goes to the companies who successfully stay on the ever-changing growth-wave.
Stay on the always-changing growth wave to remain relevant
So, what is your strategy for your next growth-wave?
Remember, what is hot today, will not stay that way forever. That is why you need to always have the next-big-thing, the next growth-wave started and ready to go.
So, what is the next-big-thing for your company? You can’t ride a successful horse forever. Everything in the marketplace always changes.
Today is the time to prepare. Like a hurricane, this change-wave will both eliminate what we have now and replace is all going forward. Stay on the changing growth wave. And be prepared for what is coming next.
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