Survey Report: The Current and Future State of Quantum Computing

August 3, 2024

Collected at: https://www.quera.com/blog-posts/current-and-future-state-of-quantum-computing

Introduction

The quantum computing industry is evolving rapidly, drawing interest from various sectors, including academia, industry, government, and enthusiasts. This report provides a comprehensive analysis based on the recent survey conducted by QuEra Computing in June 2024. The report provides insights into national quantum programs, technical challenges, development pace, and ethical considerations in the field of quantum computing.

The full report is below. A PDF version also available for download here.

1. Survey Demographics

Primary interest

A total of 927 survey responses were collected from mid-June to early July 2024. The respondents reported that their primary Interests in quantum computing are as follows:

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• Academics: 43.0%

• Quantum Computing Companies: 19.4%

• Non-Quantum Companies: 13.0%

• Analysts/Press: 2.3%

• Enthusiasts: 14.2%

• Others: 8.1% (e.g., researchers in non-profits, consultants, students)

Quantum Computing Geographical Distribution

The survey gathered responses from participants across various countries, with notable contributions from the United States, Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

*Figure 3 – expanded view focusing on European countries*

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2. National Insights

Positioning for important role in the global quantum industry

To explore opinions about country-specific status, we asked: “How well-positioned is the country you mentioned in the previous question to play an important role in the global quantum computing industry?”

*Figure 4 – How well-positioned is the country you mentioned in the previous question to play an important role in the global quantum computing industry?*

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While globally, over 52% of respondents felt that their country is positioned very well and nearly 85% felt that their country is positioned very well or reasonably well, the responses for key individual countries were more varied:

*Figure 5 – Detail on how well-positioned is the country you mentioned in the previous question to play an important role in the global quantum computing industry?*

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For instance, German respondents felt much less confident than US respondents about their country’s ability to play an important role in the global quantum industry. Just over 44% responded that Germany is very well positioned, vs. over 82% that believed the US is very well positioned.

National Source of the Quantum Computer

Related to this, we asked “How important is it for your organization where the quantum computer was developed?” This comes at a time where several countries are constructing barriers that make it more difficult to acquire computers made in other parts of the world.

*Figure 6 – How important is it for your organization where the quantum computer was developed?*

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Fewer than 20% say it’s not important where the computer was developed. Of those that believe it important where the computer is developed a friendly trade partner source was indicated almost twice as much as “in my own country”. These figures do not substantially change across the different types of interest in quantum:

*Figure 7 – Breakdown by segment: How important is it for your organization where the quantum computer was developed?*

When analyzed across key countries, France and the US are stronger in their desire to have the quantum computer developed in-country:

*Figure 8 – Breakdown by country: How important is it for your organization where the quantum computer was developed?*

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3. Quantum Computing Technical Progress and Challenges

Pace of Development

Next, we asked about the pace of development relative to expectations:

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Over 50% of respondents indicated that the pace of development is faster (41.2%) or much faster (10.2%) than they expected.

When broken down by segment:

*Figure 10 – Breakdown of how the pace of development compares to your expectations from a few years ago.*

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Companies whose business is quantum computing believe the pace of progress is more aligned with their expectations, perhaps because these companies play a role in setting expectations. Analysts also appear reluctant to admit that progress is much faster than they expected.

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Most Significant Quantum Computing Technical Challenge

We asked participants to opine on the most significant technical challenge currently facing quantum computing.

*Figure 11 – What is the most significant technical challenge currently facing quantum computing?*

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Scalability (33.1%) and error correction and fault tolerance (30.9%) were the top responses. In the “other” category, key topics were software development skills, security, and industrialization of quantum machines.

A different picture appears when analyzed by segment:

*Figure 12 – Breakdown by segment: What is the most significant technical challenge currently facing quantum computing?*

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Quantum vendors appear to be more focused on scalability (35.6%) than error correction (30.6%) whereas end-users favor error correction (34.2%) to scalability (25.0%). Academic researchers consider both equally challenging.

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Areas of Investment

We inquired what areas should receive significant investment and funding to advance quantum computing. Here are the results:

*Figure 13 – What areas should receive significant investment and funding to advance quantum computing?*

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When broken down by segments, end-users seem more concerned with cryptography and security as well as quantum networking and communications than respondents in other segments:

*Figure 14- Breakdown by segment: What areas should receive significant investment and funding to advance quantum computing*

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4. Quantum Computing Return on Investment (ROI)

Source of ROI

We asked what respondents expect to be the source or sources or quantum computing ROI in their organizations. We allowed multiple responses, and filtered the results to focus just on end-users, academic users and vendors of quantum computing. The responses were as follows:

*Figure 15 – What do you expect to be the source(s) of quantum computing ROI in your organization?*

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The top two responses were solving previously unsolvable problems and solving problems faster than classically possible. Academic customers mentioned novel academic publications as their top benefit, whereas innovation and new IP was highly ranked in companies whose main business is quantum computing. For those interested, here is a breakdown of all responses:

*Figure 16 – What do you expect to be the source(s) of quantum computing ROI in your organization?*

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Recent Access

We inquired whether quantum computing is being used today and whether the majority of use is classical, quantum, or roughly an equal combination of both. The responses were:

*Figure 17 – Roughly what proportion of your current computational tasks utilize pure quantum computing vs. hybrid quantum/classical computing?*

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We see that end-users hardly use pre quantum computing, whereas companies in the quantum business primarily use hybrid quantum/classical computing.

Obtained Value

We then inquired whether those that accessed a quantum computer obtained some value from it:

*Figure 18 – If you accessed a quantum computer within the past twelve months, did it provide you with value?*

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The answers were roughly split between those reporting that this access provided them with significant or some value, and those that don’t know, are unclear what value was returned, saying that access did not provide them with value or provided with negative value. However, a plurality of those that accessed a quantum computer reported that it provided some value.

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When drilling down by segment, following results arise:

*Figure 19 – Breakdown by segment: If you have accessed a quantum computer within the past twelve months, did it provide you with value?*

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End users received much less value (35.6% report some or significant value) than academic (57.2%) or quantum-related companies (51.8%)

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5. Quantum Computing Future Use and Usage Drivers

Investment Drivers

When organizations are investing in quantum computing, why are they investing? We asked respondents to identify all investment decision drivers:

*Figure 20 – If you are currently investing in quantum computing capabilities, what is driving your decision?*

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The most common drivers were exploration of future opportunities and preparing for future applications. “Other” responses primarily include workforce development.

When exploring this by segment, “competitive edge” is more pronounced in both end-users and quantum-centric companies:

*Figure 21 – If you are currently investing in quantum computing capabilities, what is driving your decision?*

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Could an Organization be Caught Off-Guard?

Given that many respondents believe that quantum is progressing faster than they anticipated, we asked how likely it is that their organization is caught off-guard by the pace of development and availability of quantum computing:

*Figure 22 – How likely is it that your organization will be caught off-guard by the pace of development and availability of quantum computing?*

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Just about a third (32.7%) felt that it’s likely or highly likely that their organization will be caught off-guard. As might be expected, this percentage is lower (22.8%) in organizations whose primary business is quantum computing, and higher in end-users (36.2%) and academics (34.5%):

*Figure 23 – Detail by organization: How likely is it that your organization will be caught off-guard by the pace of development and availability of quantum computing?*

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Insufficient Cloud Resources

When organizations are asked about their reasons for buying a quantum computer, sometimes the concern that there would be insufficient cloud resources comes up. This is likely a result of the difficulty to obtain sufficient cloud GPU resources these days. We sought to explore this concern for quantum:

Figure 24 – Due to the rapid growth of AI applications, many people are experiencing difficulties in securing time on GPUs for their projects. Are you concerned that a similar situation might occur with quantum computers once their value is proven?

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64.5% of those that responded are somewhat concerned or very concerned that it would be difficult for their organization to secure quantum computer time on the cloud, once the value of quantum computing is proven.

Public Cloud, Private Cloud or On-Premises?

Another way to look at this issue is to explore whether organizations plan to use cloud (public or private) or on-premises solutions for their quantum computer. Here are the responses:

*Figure 25 – If you plan to invest in quantum computing, will it be via private cloud, public cloud, or on premise?*

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While cloud access remains the preferable approach, about 20% (19.9%) indicated an on-premises plan either directly or after an initial development on the cloud.

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6. Quantum Computing Concerns and Ethical Considerations

Good or Harmful Use?

Like most new technologies, quantum computing can be used for good but might also be used for harmful purposes. We inquired whether respondents are more excited about the good or harmful uses of quantum computing:

*Figure 26 – Are you more excited about the potential of quantum computing to do good, or more concerned about its potential to be used for harmful purposes?*

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Nearly three quarter (74.9%) are more excited about the good potential of quantum.

As perhaps is to be expected, quantum-related companies are more excited (80.6%) than average about the good potential of quantum computing, whereas end-users are less excited (70.8%) than average.

*Figure 27 – Breakdown by segment: Are you more excited about the potential of quantum computing to do good, or more concerned about its potential to be used for harmful purposes?*

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Ethical Considerations

We then asked, “What ethical considerations should be prioritized as quantum computing technology advances?”:

Key points raised, from most to least were:

• Privacy and security: 67.2%

• Equity in access: 46.2%

• Environmental impact: 46.1%

• Impact on employment and job markets: 27.2%

• Other: 7.15% (e.g., energy consumption, fair research)

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7. Future Outlook

When would Quantum be Superior to Classical Computing?

We asked “When do you expect quantum to be a superior alternative to classical computing for certain workloads?”:

*Figure 29 – When do you expect quantum to be a superior alternative to classical computing for certain workloads?*

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Most respondents felt that it would be 6-10 years from today.

When broken down by segment:

*Figure 30 – Analysis by segment: When do you expect quantum to be a superior alternative to classical computing for certain workloads?*

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It seems that academic users are much more pessimistic that end-users and quantum companies. For instance, only 29.6% of academic users believe that quantum can be a superior alternative within the next five years, as compared with 47.0% for end-users and 47.8% of quantum-centric companies.

Potential Unconventional Applications

In response to “Imagine a world where quantum computing has reached its full potential. What is the most unexpected or unconventional application of quantum computing you envision?”, Participants envision a variety of unconventional applications for quantum computing, including:

• Quantum-enhanced computer graphics

• Quantum neural networks

• High-energy physics simulations

• Medical diagnostics

• Large-scale random number generation

• Optimization in agriculture and energy distribution

• Quantum artificial intelligence and robotics

We uncovered these answers in greater detail in a blog post here.

Conclusion

The survey reveals a diverse and growing interest in quantum computing across various sectors and geographies. While significant technical challenges remain, there is optimism about the potential benefits and ethical considerations that need addressing. Investment is driven by a mix of competitive edge, research support, and preparation for future applications. The pace of development is generally meeting or exceeding expectations, and there is a strong interest in both the positive impacts and the ethical implications of quantum computing technology.

This extensive report provides a snapshot of the current landscape and future outlook of quantum computing based on the survey results. It highlights the industry’s readiness, areas of investment, and the community’s excitement and concerns about this transformative technology.

A PDF version also available for download here.