By Jeff Kagan January 22, 2024
Collected at : https://www.rcrwireless.com/20240122/analyst-angle/kagan-wireless-growth-from-5g-and-6g-to-fwa-and-private-wireless
Once again, wireless is going through massive changes. Today, we are in the middle of the 5G rollout, while preparing for 6G and beyond. Other new areas include private wireless, FWA, 5G Home Internet and technologies like AI, Chatbot, IoT the cloud and more. Learning about all this is a challenge for investors, workers, consumers and enterprise customers to keep up to speed. So, let’s take a few minutes, pull the camera back and get a longer-term, historical perspective on what we need to know about 2024 and beyond.
Large and small wireless companies both compete with, work with and even increasingly acquire each other. I believe we will see even more of this going forward. As an example, think of the recent announcement that HPE is acquiring Juniper Networks.
HPE acquiring Juniper Networks will help both in private wireless
Private wireless is an example of a new sector with plenty of promise, however the messaging from different competitors seems to be all over the map. This makes it difficult for customers to understand this new space, compare and to act.
There needs to be consistency in messaging and language to create a viable marketplace so customers can compare offerings from different companies side by side.
Because that is what is missing right now, I like to explain in my columns about private wireless to help enterprises customers, cities, stadiums, warehouses, manufacturing facilities and more, better understand so they can make the right choices for them.
Qualcomm, Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, NTT Docomo and more in wireless 5G
Today, all competitors in the space see both growth opportunities and communications challenges. At the same time, they are all chasing after the same customers and growth potential.
The problem is, they use different terms at this early stage making it confusing for the buyers.
Several leading companies in this space include Qualcomm, Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, NTT Docomo and a growing list of others.
There are other companies who are important in different segments of the market as well. Some of them are industry giants. Others are smaller competitors trying to carve out their niche in the growing marketplace.
US Cellular, Shabodi, Betacom, HPE, Juniper Networks in private wireless
Some important players in this private wireless space include Betacom, US Cellular, Shabodi, HPE which is acquiring Juniper Networks, Celona, Globalstar, Federated Wireless, Cisco, Nokia, Intel, Samsung and a growing number of others as well.
Every wireless carrier says they are actively moving into this space like AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon. Some are further ahead than others.
In fact, while some are more actively moving in this direction, others are simply using private wireless as more of a keyword, so they will be found in a search and considered.
We will see more partnerships and acquisitions in private wireless
Going forward, I believe we will see more of these companies join forces and work together. We will also see larger companies acquiring smaller ones. The reason is, acquiring smaller, dedicated competitors is a quick way for larger ones to accelerate their progress.
Being acquired by, or partnering with larger companies also gives smaller competitors the cash they need to continue operations as this great transition continues.
This is important to understand because investors and workers are always looking for new growth opportunities. And starting any new segment requires time and money.
The growth wave is always moving forward. Either you keep riding this changing growth wave, or it moves ahead without you.
Private wireless is confusing today. It needs to clean up its act. It needs to have a common, more simple language, so customers can better understand, compare and choose.
Wireless analyst sees growth ahead with AI, private wireless and FWA
Mark my words, we are now entering the next, exciting generation in the wireless industry.
I’ve been a witness to growth and change as a wireless industry analyst for more than 35 years. Based on that, I can say there were several moments where wireless leaped forward. Accelerating to the next level and exploding with growth.
· One of these times was when the networks jumped from analog to digital in the 1990s.
· Another was when the iPhone and Android quickly entered and transformed the industry sending previous leaders like Motorola and Blackberry to the back of the line.
· Another was when apps exploded with growth and became commonplace.
· Another was when speeds increased to allow new services like Uber and Lyft, or online banking, watching television on the phone and so much more.
All these steps triggered a new growth wave which took the wireless industry to the next level.
And that is what is happening once again, today.
AI, private wireless, FWA represent the next big steps in wireless
I believe we are seeing the next chapter in wireless history begin right now. The next big step is happening right now with advanced new technology.
AI is growing so rapidly, that it represents its own next big step in wireless evolution. Plus, other technologies like private wireless and FWA are also rapidly growing sectors.
We have seen this same growth-wave in the wireless industry, time and time again over the past several decades. Every hot new technology has a life span. Some are short while others are long.
Telephone and cable TV have crested and are being replaced
That’s why every competitor needs to create multiple growth waves so when one begins to slow, the company can continue to show growth in others.
Example, companies like Blackberry and Motorola led the handset space but were quickly replaced by iPhone and Android.
Plus, industries like telephone and cable TV have grown over decades but have since crested in the past two decades and are being replaced by new services and competitors in wireless, broadband, streaming and more.
In fact, smaller cable TV competitors are already starting to move out of cable TV altogether as users choose streaming competitors.
Today, smaller competitors in the pay TV or IPTV space have been growing as larger services have been declining.
Traditional growth is changing in the communications industry. Traditional services have crested and are now falling. They are being replace by new technologies and challenges.
That is why it is so important we understand how the industry is reshaping itself going forward. Some areas are slowing while other areas are full of growth potential.
Bottom line, competitors either have to stay with the moving growth wave or get left behind.
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